Determinants of Food Security in Algeria: An Econometric Study Using the ARDL Model
Dekkiche Djamal, Khelifa Hadj, Laila Oulad Brahim
Keywords:
Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, GFCF, Competitiveness, Imports
Abstract:
This study examines the determinants of food security in Algeria from 1990 to 2021, using the Food Production Index (FPI) as a proxy and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework as the analytical tool. The set of explanatory variables comprises the area of land under cereal production (in hectares), the inflation rate, the exchange rate, and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Particular attention is paid to the link between food prices and the competitiveness of the Algerian food sector, given the country’s persistent reliance on imports. The results reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables and indicate that land under cereal production, gross fixed capital formation, and the exchange rate exert a statistically significant influence on food prices in both the short and long run, while inflation has a negative but statistically insignificant effect. A Zivot–Andrew’s test identifies a structural break in 2019, which the model accommodates without loss of stability. The study finds that improving competitiveness in Algeria’s food sector calls for sustained agricultural investment, firm control of inflation, and stronger resource-use efficiency, all of which together support the stability of food prices. From a policy and competitiveness perspective, the study recommends formulating an effective monetary policy that supports food production and curbs the inflationary pressures threatening food security. Greater attention should also be devoted to promoting Algerian exports and to building a strong domestic food sector capable of substituting imports in both quality and quantity. Stabilizing the exchange rate would encourage investment, reduce import dependence, and help to contain food-price inflation. Finally, redirecting attention to productive farmland is essential for achieving economic diversification and a more competitive food-security base.
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 Determinants of Food Security in Algeria: An Econometric Study Using the ARDL Model [PDF file] [Filesize: 719.4 KB]
 10.7441/joc.2026.02.06
Djamal, D., Hadj, K., & Brahim, L. O. (2026). Determinants of Food Security in Algeria: An Econometric Study Using the ARDL Model. Journal of Competitiveness 18(2), 161–180. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2026.02.06
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