Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Undermine Sustainable Competitiveness? A Nonlinear Green Growth Analysis for China
Hai Long, Wen-Wei Li
Keywords:
Trade policy uncertainty; Sustainable competitiveness; Green growth; China; QARDL; Nonlinear analysis
Abstract:
Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) can affect both economic performance and environmental outcomes, thereby shaping sustainable competitiveness. This study examines the nonlinear relationship between TPU and green growth in China from 2000Q1 to 2021Q4. Green growth is treated as the empirical channel through which sustainable competitiveness is assessed, because it links economic performance with environmental quality. Using quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) and nonlinear QARDL models, the study estimates heterogeneous short-run and long-run effects across the green-growth distribution. The linear results show that TPU has a negative and statistically significant effect on green growth at several quantiles, especially at the lower and upper parts of the distribution. The nonlinear results indicate that positive TPU shocks reduce green growth, whereas reductions in TPU improve green growth, particularly at higher quantiles. Green investment, human capital, and environmental technology also emerge as important determinants of green growth. The findings suggest that stable trade policy, stronger green investment, human-capital upgrading, and environmental technology development can strengthen China’s sustainable competitiveness.
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 10.7441/joc.2026.SI.22
Long, H., & Li, W.-W. (2026). Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Undermine Sustainable Competitiveness? A Nonlinear Green Growth Analysis for China. Journal of Competitiveness, 18(SI 2), 276–294. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2026.SI.22
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