ICT-Based Digital Trade and Green Growth in China: Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Breaks
Tingting Sun
Keywords:
ICT trade, green growth, smooth transition regression, nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks, China
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of ICT-based digital trade on green growth in China over the period 1985–2021. To capture nonlinear dynamics and regime-dependent effects, the analysis applies a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) framework and identifies structural break points around 2003, 2010, and 2011. The study also constructs a green gross national income indicator to reflect the environmental cost of economic expansion more explicitly. The findings reveal that the relationship between ICT trade and green growth is nonlinear rather than constant over time. ICT-based digital trade exerts a positive and approximately unit-elastic effect on green growth, while labor and capital also contribute positively, with evidence of increasing returns to scale in the presence of ICT. The results further suggest that technological progress associated with ICT can support green growth by improving energy efficiency, strengthening productive capacity, and facilitating the use of less energy-intensive inputs. These findings imply that the growth and environmental benefits of ICT are conditional on the stage of green development and the broader economic structure. Accordingly, policies that promote ICT trade, technological innovation, capital formation, and skilled labor development may strengthen China’s transition toward sustainable and greener growth.
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 ICT-Based Digital Trade and Green Growth in China: Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Breaks [PDF file] [Filesize: 700.48 KB]
 10.7441/joc.2026.SI.14
Sun, T. (2026). ICT-Based Digital Trade and Green Growth in China: Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Breaks. Journal of Competitiveness, 18(SI 2), 138–157. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2026.SI.14
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