National resilience to shocks: A configurational analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the goods exports of European Union countries
Cristina Santos-Rojo, Juan Manuel García García, Fernando Castelló-Sirvent
Keywords:
COVID-19, economic shocks, exports, economic development, resilience, fsQCA
Abstract:
This study explores the impact of the COVID-19 health crisis and other geopolitical events on the goods exports of European Union (EU) countries, as well as the possible long-term effects on the development and growth of these countries. The study focuses on parameters related to economic growth, including public deficit, debt-to-GDP ratio, gross fixed capital formation, competitiveness, productivity, and trade openness. Drawing on the academic literature, a model is proposed and tested using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). The case approach enables analysis of combinations of factors that help countries become more resilient to major global shocks. The results suggest that certain preconditions such as a solid institutional framework and a diversified export structure shape essential profiles and are necessary for countries to ensure subsequent periods of economic growth. Specifically, the empirical analysis reveals two profiles of EU countries with strong resilience and three profiles of EU countries with weak resilience. The findings have relevant implications for policymakers. They highlight the importance of developing resilience to prepare for unpredictable and complex global events. A novel feature of this study is the application of a case study methodology. The study is also novel in that it identifies macroeconomic resilience profiles that are robust to unexpected external shocks. This exploratory study contributes to the academic literature on economic development and goods export resilience in open economies. It also offers scholars promising opportunities for future studies.
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 National resilience to shocks: A configurational analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the goods exports of European Union countries [PDF file] [Filesize: 383.52 KB]
 10.7441/joc.2025.01.05
Santos Rojo, C., García García, J. M., & Castelló-Sirvent, F. (2025). National resilience to shocks: A configurational analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the goods exports of European Union countries. Journal of Competitiveness, 17(1), 78-100. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2025.01.05
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